UFC Live On Versus: Picks and Notes

I went 7-3 the last time I tried this picking winners thing, and I've been around enough to know that better than 50% is not bad at all. Coincidentally, that was UFN 22, also with Marquart on the Marquee. Since then Nate The Great lost another title eliminator to the current Middleweight Contender, Yushin Okami, and finds himself fighting at 170 lbs for the first time in his UFC career against the surging Rick Story, himself fresh off a win over Welterweight contender Thiago Alves. 

This card originally had Anthony "Rumble" Johnson welcoming Marquart to the weight class, a fundamentally more interesting fighter then Story. Whether it's the weight behind his punches, or behind his belt, eye pokes, injuries, broken promises to bang, etc. an Anthony Johnson fight has interest behind it. With Story though we get no surprises, no intrigue, just a tough kid that comes to fight with everything he has, wrestling ugly fights, dragging guys that may have more skill into a mess that they can't see or get out of.

This card is geared really two ways: the hard-core fans will have one of their guys on the card, with cult faves like Charles Oliveira(WAR), Daniel Roberts, Joe Lauzon, Matt Mitrione and Pat Barry throwing down, and non-fans flipping through the free channels will see two Heavyweight bouts with three kickboxers between them, or Matt Brown and John Howard trading bombs, or Nate and Story doing whatever that clusterfuck is gonna produce.

That being said here are my picks for UFC Live: Marquart v. Story

*Nate Marquart v. Rick Story
I always thought that Marquart looked like a big Middleweight but all reports seems to indicate that this was not a tough cut for him, that he wasn't far off to begin with. If that is the case I think he's going to be too big for Story to drag him into the kind of fight Story needs it to be in order to win. Marquart has still landed the nicest combination I have ever seen in an MMA fight against Wilson Gouveia at UFC 95, and if he feels secure enough at this weight that he can really unload with his striking again I don't know who can beat him. As such I look for him to finish this fight via R3 TKO.

*Cheick Kongo v. Pat Barry
This is not a pick I like making, nor one I would stake much more than a beer on. Both hold wins over Cro Cop and Antoni Hardonk while in the UFC. Kongo's last five fights read like this: TKO with punches, out-wrestled by now Champion Cain Velsquez, out-struck and then tapped by Mir, then he out-wrestled Paul Buentello and got into the ugliest of wrestling matches with Travis Browne, where he gave away the decision by repeated cheating. If Barry were much better he'd be the easy pick, if he were much worse then Kongo would run away with it. And so I am stuck trying to guess at what will happen when the bell rings. Best I can figure Kongo will think the kickboxing is a wash and will then go for a takedown and ground and pound as in the Buentello fight. These guys may trade strikes, or Barry's work with Lesnar and other's may make him able to keep this standing, in which case it's a pick 'em fight. I dunno, but I'm taking Kongo in a decision.

*Matt Brown v. John Howard
There are lots of ways to fight, more particularly lots of styles of striking, but these two both fight willing to eat a shot in order to deliver one. And they'll give and take big shots all night. Both are tough as nails, neither have an ounce of quit and I don't doubt that this will be the best fight on cable Saturday night. Howard has the better technique, better leg kicks and more power, and I have to take him in this one, either R3 TKO or split decision.

*Matt Mitrione v. Christian Morecraft
For me Christian Morecraft will always be fighting with a deficit because of the awful tattoo across his belly. Yes, your name is Morecraft, and jugning by the font, the Morecrafts are a Gothic people, preferring cavernous castles and rainy mountains to anything normal or appropriate. That he was unable to put away Stefan Struve, despite landing several clean shots, does not bode well for MoreKraft(dinner in ma' belly!) and I look for Mitrione to show movement and land leg kicks through the first and put him away with punches in the second.

*Tyson Griffin v. Manvel Gamburyan - Manny will have a rude awakening for a depleted Griffin, making his Featherweight debut. I think he will find that the Strikeforce Lightweight division would have been more welcoming.
*Joe Stevenson v. Javier Vasquez - In Joe Stevenson I see a fighter whose strong BJJ overwhelms lesser grapplers but cannot put away elite grapplers like Vasquez. See above for advice re: Strikeforce Lightweight division.
*Joe Lauzon v. Curt Warburton - Besides being a friend of a friend, Lauzon can look like a beast and I think Warburton will be unable keep up.
*Daniel Roberts v. Rich Attonito - Cesar Gracie Jui Jitsu mo'fuckers. Or something like that. Roberts will be too dominant wrestling and with submissions.
*Charlie Brenneman v. TJ Grant - I have to take the Canadian over the Pros vs. Joes vet.
*Nick Lentz v. Charles Oliveira - The first MMAUFC 118 in Boston where Nick Lentz had the worst victory I have ever seen. At least they had the decency to call Shamrock v. Severn a draw. If he cannot score the takedown he has no recourse, and if he can score the takedown he still has no recourse. And Charles Oliveira is a joy to watch, aggressive and technical off his back and fun to watch on his feet.
*Ricardo Lamas v. Matt Grice
*Michael Johnson v. Edward Faalolto

Welcome to UFN 22 Live Blog sans pants.

Fights on TV. Gotta love 'em. I'm a big time mma fan and I'm betting that I know more than most people, and have got enough to say about it that some of you are going to listen. And sometimes, I'm going to make stuff up: Nate Marquart once fought a Yakuza boss to a draw when Nate refused to pay tribute after winning the Middleweight King of Pancrase. BAM!

Live blogging'll start at about 5 or ten to the hour. I hope something crazy happens, that'll be fodder for the news, then this'll get picked up by CNN, and I'll be an instant MMA expert. Yeah. Expert.

Five minutes to showtime.
Rua v Machida 2 is on Spike. That was a short fight. Bigger before than during. Good Though. It looked to me like Rua was confident going in. He was moving forward and pressing. Machida got a pair of sumo take downs, but Rua reversed an won a big fight. Loved it.

Showtime! Live in Texas! RIP Mr. Rice?
So far Foster, Waldburger, Attonito, Branch, Kingsbury and Edwards all won on the undercard.
Still a lot of empty seats, but we'll see how that goes.
Goldie is at a Medium on the fake'n bake scale. I think Rogan is really excited about the bjj guys on the card

Ross Pearson and Cole Miller are up first.
There's a lot of buzz about Pearson these days. I've heard a lot about his boxing fundamentals. I got Miller in this one, but he's going to have to create scrambles to get it done, or pull out some take downs against the stout Pearson.
You can't beat Bruce Buffer. He fists bumps Miller in the middle on the intro.
Pearson has Deam Amasinger, Tuf 9 Alumni in his corner.
R1: Pearson take centre, throws a leg kick. Some staring. They engage, trade shots. Pearson closes the distance really quickly, lands 2, but then Miller gets a leg. Miller keeps a clinch against the cage.
They separate and Miller pulls guard. He lets go. Great fight. Pearson is doing great landing from a distance. Weird b/c Miller has a big reach advantage. Pace is slowing coming down to the last minute. Miller is covering up better when Pearson comes inside. Pearson almost clinches, then remembers he's the striker here.They engage and trade to end the round. 10-10. Good fight Brewing.
R2: Meet in the middle. Trade. Goldie and Rogan are selling Pearson, sounds like it's coming from upstairs. Cole jumps in. Can't take him down in the scramble. Pearson isn't committing power. He's connecting more. Miller starts landing. Lands more. Lands scissor kick. Lands punches. Pearson down! Miller follows and goes for neck. Goes really fast and hard for the neck. Takes it, Pearson taps, it's over.
Miller came out harder and pressed as soon as he started landing a little. He put power into everything and landed a few really hard shots. When Pearson dropped to his knees Miller lasered in on the neck, didn't even think of going for a strike. Secured Pearson's left arm with his leg got the throat and it was done.
Talking to Rogan after he comes out hard against control wrestlers and control bjj guys. He says fight to finish not for points or the clock, "this ain't football," he says.
Next is Jim Miller v Gleison Tibeau. I got Miller in this. I take technique over size and strength. They always front load these broadcasts with commercials. It's been on for almost forty minutes and there has only been one fight.
R1: Miller takes center, starts pushing. They exchange. Tibeau initiating with combinations. Miller lands a leg kick, went for another and Tibeau took him down.Tibeau stands out of a stalemated guard, he dives in and Jim uses it to get up. Miller lands a good jab, Tibeau staggered. Collar and elbow tie up along the fence. Tibeau takes him down, Miller gets back up. Again clinched on the cage. Tibeau almost catches another kick. Miller shoots, and gets nothing but another clinch on the fence. They break off the fence and circle, a few strikes here and there. Mostly feints. Miller rushes, and again almost catches a kick. Miller is landing. Last 15 seconds, not much lands.
10-10, or 10-9 Tibeau on take downs. But he didn't do anything with them and Miller landed more strikes. 10-10.
R2: They circle. Miller lands a big left, and drops to a knee. Miller follows up going for the neck, like Cole did last fight. Tibeau is out of the woods, but looks drained from it. They clinch for a long time against the fence. Miller want to land that left again. Tibeau gets the double. Miller goes for a move and gets up in the scramble. Miller is moving forward, Tibeau isn't. Same goes, a few small exchanges. Tibeau gets the double. He's got Miller against the cage. He stands, then gets back into Miller's butterfly guard. The round ends like that.
Another 10-10. Miller did damage, and went for the finish, Tibeau got 2 solid take downs and held control.
R3: More circling. more exchanges. Tibeau lands. Tibeau pushes him against the fence in a clinch. Miller lands as they separate. Miller is pressing more. Miller lands a couple as his corner screams about Tibeau's shot. It comes and Miller stuffs it. Miller pushes him against the fence. Miller shoots. Has a single, doesn't look really deep. Crowd boos the stalemate. The separate and Tibeau shoots. Again Miller stuffs. One minute left. Ref separates them. Tibeau shoots. Miller pushes forward. 15 seconds. Miller goes for a knee. Tibeau
I give Miller the 10-9 round. He won the striking exchanges and stuffed the take downs every time.
Which means I give Miller the 30-29, razor thin decision. Has nothing to do with me picking him to win.
Judges are taking their time. Here they are. (30-27;30-27;29-28) for Jim Miller.
Now we are joined via satellite by Frank Mir. Frank Mir is on the company line, really technical analysis of Cro Cop. He says he's two or three wins from a title shot. I like Mir a lot, but I hate his hair.
Aww fuck. Now we get Goldie and Cro Cop. Cro Cop "feel good. Not young, but condition is good." Seems like a really nice guy. Almost treating it like a phone call.
Efrain "Hecho en Mexico" Escudero v. Charles Oliveira (or Charles "Aloe Vera" as goldie says) Escudero came in 4 pounds over and gives up $$ to Oliveira before we even get started.
R1:  Charles a lot taller and longer. He comes out throwing big kicks. Escudero takes him into a clinch on the cage. They stalemate and ref breaks them up. Oliveira presses, lands a hard leg kick. Oliveira looks legit. He shoots, Escudero defends well and reverses the clinch against the cage. Oliveira is the aggressor though as they come off the cage. Escudero is throwing in the exchanges, looks close with power. Oliveira almost crane kicked himself into Escudero's right hand. They are circling around the centre without engaging. They exchange, with nothing landing. Oliveira mixes munches with knees and kicks. Oliveira shoots again, but resorts to pulling guard. Efrain in close chest to chest in half guard. Oliveira gets full guard with 10 seconds left, but Escudero lands 2 elbows.
I give it to Oliveira, 10-9. But it was close. I could see someone going the other way.
R2: Oliveira takes cetre. He throws first. They are slower, but still on springs. Escudero lands a counter when Oliveira shot, but doesn't seem to have hurt. Oliveira gets the single and the trip. Escuderoa gets the back, then gets up in the scramble. Oliveira punches to the gut. Muay Thai clinch. Oliveira lands a jumping double knee. Escudero reverses and clinches against the cage. Escudero is on his heels responding. Oliveira with the teep. Olievira is landing lots of kicks to the legs and body. They scramble a little in the last minute. Escudero closes the distance and Oliveira goes for a throw but misses it, then they both stand right up.
I give it to Oliveira again, 10-9 on strikes and pushing the pace.
R3: Oliveira lands a punch to the balls, short break.
Oliveira is still in charge. He can't get in close enough to finish, but he is in charge. Escudero clinches against the cage again. Oh. Big knee to Oliveira's balls. He is down hard. Sitting in the corner against the cage with his hand down his pants. They restart after some prodding from the ref that Rogan doesn't like. Oliverira presses they bounce off the cage into Oliveira's guard. Escudero stands and Oliveira goes for the standing Rear Naked Choke. Gets it. Had the right arm trapped with his legs, like a crazy spider hunched on his back. Big time finish of a fight he was dominating. Fuck yeah.
Escudero shakes his head as Buffer starts the official decision, he looks almost indignant.
There's like three guys in Palhares' dressing room with jeans on, an no shirts. Like they knew that they would be on tv so they decided to go full Macho.
Nate "The Great" Marquart v.Rousimar "Toquinho (Treestump)" Palhares is next, in the Main Event!
Herb Dean in charge. Don't want to take any chances with the 'risky' Palhares I guess.
R1 They meet in the middle. Palhares tries to catch a leg kick, then goes in with power punches. USA chants as they stare and feint more than throw. Palhares is pressing. Less than 2 minutes in there's little action and the boos start. Nate launches a combo, grsazing. Palhares come in with punches then chnages levels and shoots. He gets the take down. and they scramble, Nate goes for inverted triangle, and they scramble. Palhares gets to north south, then he goes for a leg. Marquart pulls right out, and Palhares points to Marquart's foot and leg and waves his hand at the ref. Nate dives in with a right and connects. He goes in and follows up with punches. The ref stops it and calls a TKO for Nate. Palhares is pissed, he thinks Marquart's legs are greased. Rogan sees it and sounds excited.
They're in for the Official Decision. Stop at 3:20 of R1 by TKO for Nate Marquart.
That's the first thing Rogan asks about, they say the ref checked, the doctor and the comission people all checked and he's clean. He wins fair and weird. Palhares should have waited until the end of the round and then said something. You got to pay attention in there.

Wow. Good card with a lot of good finishes. I liked it a lot.
Leave your comments below. It's my first go and I want to be able to do it better.
And keep a look out for my TUF 12 review tomorrow.

Seems to be cool to talk about Wrestling and MMA

It would be absurd to argue that there is no place for wrestling in MMA. It is one of the core skills that all participants need to train. Whether it's Dan Hardy saying that lay-and-pray tactics(where a superior wrestler takes an opponent down and maintains control and prays that he/she gets the victory) or Nate Marquart saying that people just need to train harder in wrestling, no one is having the debate that needs to be had: should athletes be required to seek the finish, that is press with strikes or aggressive grappling on the feet, and/or improved position, submission attempts or significant strikes while on the ground? Should aggressiveness be mandated and enforced by refs and judges?

First we have to look at the rules as they exist. Click here for the copy of the New Jersey State Control Board  Mixed Martial Arts Unified Rules of Conduct that I am using.
Rule 13:46-24A.13 deals with judging criteria, and tries to objectively direct judges as much as possible. It clearly dictates that grappling must be scored based of effectiveness and aggressiveness, not one or the other but both. Take downs, reversals, positional improvements are all weighed.
Getting a take down and sitting in guard is not effective nor aggressive grappling. Holding someone in the clinch in a stalemate against the cage is neither aggressive nor effective. It's not that fans don't want to see grappling, it's that fans don't want to see athletes rewarded for stalemating in positions and acting passively.
Nik Lentz v. Andre Winner could have been a draw because Lentz's grappling was not effective, nor was he aggressive. The reason he was awarded the decision was positional control and his edge there was so slight that I do not feel it met the requirements of the current rules.
The same argument extends to fights like Anderson Silva v. Demian Maia; the last three rounds Anderson was comically passive, flagrantly so. Were I refereeing I would have given more stern and more often warnings and should his conduct continue I would have deducted points. Maia was coming forward slowly, Silva was moving backward constantly.  You can just be a better fighter, you have to fight a better fight.

So, as far as organizations go, cash bonus's and main card fights are the best means they can use to keep potentially boring fights off the screen. If you have a fighter who wins every fight you give him, but looks awful doing it, then you bury him and whoever is unlucky enough to take that fight. "Too bad John Fitch, but we won't put you on TV until you at least make it look like finishing is on the menu." 
As far as judges go, recognize stalemates as draws instead of 'positional control', and feel free to give out 10-10, 10-8 and 10-7 rounds. Don't be afraid of a draw if that's what you're seeing.
And as far as fighters go, from bell to bell both fighters are constantly obligated to pursue the end of the fight. This is not new, these are the rules as they exist.